John E. Mein, executive coordinator at Instituto Aliança Procomex in Brazil: “With the ninth largest economy in the world, representing 2.4 percent of the world’s GNP, Brazil is only responsible for 1.2 percent of the international trade of goods. The $217.7 billion it exported last year placed it as the 25th exporter in the world, and the $150.7 billion it imported put it as the 28th importer, with 1.2 percent and 0.9 percent of world trade, respectively. Although Brazil ranks as 46th in the world in per capita income, in exports per capita it ranks as 110th and its imports per capita rank as 130th. The de- crease in the overall volume of international trade brought about by a ‘trade war’ will not be favorable for a nation that has tremendous potential for growth in its trade. Trade disputes may provide Brazil with short-term gains in a few sectors, such as the result of increased demand for Brazilian soybeans by the Chinese. But the gains provided by these specific opportunities, besides being short-lived, will be substantially outweighed by the overall slowdown in the world economy brought about by the irrational increase in tariffs and the undermining of the well tested institutional support mechanisms which provide the framework for international trade. On July 22 and 23, the presidents from the Pacific Alliance countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) and from the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) met in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, to discuss the possibility of a positive integration agenda for the two regions. The intensification of integration as a response to the international uncertainties may be one of the few long-term benefits of the prospects of a ‘trade war.’”
John Edwin Mein
Coordenador Executivo do Procomex.
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